US Elections & Political Forecasting Specialist

Role overview Bring practical US election forecasting experience to a project evaluating AI political analysis. You will develop assessments using only the information available at a specified point in time, showing how an informed analyst would reach a defensible forecast without relying on later events. What you’ll be doing • Prepare reports on state elections, polling and political risk using a fixed evidence cut-off. • Explain likely outcomes and the factors that could change a forecast, connecting conclusions to observable evidence. • Interpret polling, win probabilities and market odds while making uncertainty and assumptions clear. • Evaluate AI analyses for sound reasoning, relevant evidence and a credible explanation of political cause and effect. Who this could suit University pollsters, campaign analysts and specialists in state-level political risk with a substantial record of making live forecasts. Around eight years of relevant experience is typical, although a comparably strong practical track record may be considered. What you’ll need Current or recent hands-on analysis of US swing-state Senate, governor or other statewide races is essential, together with experience making forecasts before the result is known. International politics alone, purely theoretical work or reporting without forecasting experience does not meet this requirement. Clear English writing is needed, and the listing specifies a bachelor’s degree as its education level. Use only appropriate public information; do not share confidential or material non-public data. You don’t have to match every requirement exactly. We welcome applicants with different backgrounds, levels of experience and transferable skills. Pay and working arrangements Remote contract work paying $150–$250 per hour. The listing does not specify weekly hours or a project duration. What happens next Apply through Find Jobs in AI with your profile and CV. We’ll review your application and, if you’re a good fit, we’ll be in touch about the next steps.